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Goldman Sachs has revised its inflation outlook, predicting the core PCE index will rise to 3.5% this year, and anticipates three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the latter half of 2024. This forecast could positively impact the crypto market, as historically, rate cuts have boosted risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is down 1.81% to $81,985, with major tokens like XRP and Cardano's ADA experiencing losses exceeding 7%.
Goldman Sachs has revised its inflation outlook, predicting the core PCE index to rise to 3.5% this year, and anticipates three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the latter half of 2024. This bullish stance could positively impact the crypto market, as lower borrowing costs typically boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is down 1.81% to $81,985, with major tokens like XRP and Cardano's ADA experiencing significant losses.
European markets opened lower amid ongoing market uncertainty, with analysts indicating that the equity drawdown probability has not peaked. Factors contributing to this outlook include a weakening macroeconomic backdrop, declines in key tech stocks, and a risk appetite indicator suggesting no strong buying opportunity has emerged.Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the Chicago Business Barometer and U.S. employment reports, while crude oil and gold prices showed slight increases. Asian markets also closed lower, reflecting broader global market trends.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three quarter-point reductions in July, September, and November, amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm raised the 12-month recession probability to 35% and lowered its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.0%, while also anticipating a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now expecting three quarter-point reductions this year amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm anticipates cuts in July, September, and November, raising the 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%. Additionally, it has lowered its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.0% and increased the year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three quarter-point reductions this year amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm anticipates a 35% probability of recession within 12 months, up from 20%, and has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter to 1.0% while raising the year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has raised its U.S. recession probability from 20% to 35%, reflecting a significant shift in economic outlook, now incorporating a "stagflationary twist." The firm projects inflation to reach 3.5% in 2025 and GDP growth to slow to 1.0%. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming tariff announcements and key economic reports.
Global markets faced turmoil last week due to new 25% US auto tariffs, raising stagflation concerns amid mixed earnings in Hong Kong. The Nasdaq 100 is testing critical support levels, while commodity prices surged, with oil nearing $70 per barrel and gold hitting $3,086. Key economic data, including China PMI and US employment figures, are anticipated this week.
Jerome Powell's recent reintroduction of the term "transitory" regarding inflation raises concerns, as US core inflation remains above the target despite previous aggressive monetary tightening. With rising consumer inflation expectations and potential supply chain disruptions from tariffs, the Fed risks underestimating inflation's persistence. Historical lessons suggest that early intervention is crucial to maintain price stability and avoid a self-fulfilling inflationary cycle.
UBS analysts suggest the U.S. economy may be entering a phase of "slowflation," characterized by lower growth and elevated inflation, as President Trump's tariff plans could lead to short-term price increases. They predict growth will slow to 2.0% this year from 2.3% in 2024, but do not foresee a significant economic downturn. Despite mixed recession indicators, the overall economic outlook remains strong, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
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goldman sachs predicts fed rate cuts boosting potential for cryptocurrency market
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